Commodities are very volatile at this time (April 2013) and we can make a rough grouping of precious metals, metals, agriculture and oils.
There is some correlation between all of them but a large correlation between gold, silver and platinum. There are many many blogs and articles about gold in particular BUT we see that the price moves with silver and platinum and not usually gold on its own. Gold may decouple at some point from the other metals. For example, if CBs want to sell off their foreign exchange gold reserves.
Copper or Dr Copper is a traditional indicator of global output since it it used extensively by manufacturing industries. BUT it has a reputation recently of being used as collateral for loans especially in China.
One aspect to look for is the connection between commodities and shadow finance. There has been fractional reserve commodity selling where the same commodity has been used as collateral many times over. if too many creditors seek liquidation at one time, then its possible that a commodity run could happen. A commodity run would create debt impairment. The degree of debt impairment is a somewhat unknown quantity and yet another possible, so-called, black swan event
Aluminum is also a good indicator of industrial output.
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